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Predicting the Top 8 Contenders for the NBA Title in 2024

By Akhil Narvekar | August 9, 2023

It’s been nearly 2 months since the Denver Nuggets took out the 2023 NBA Championship in emphatic fashion and with the draft and summer league now in the rearview, only about 2 months remain before the beginning of a new season. The 2023 season brought about as close to a changing of the guard as we’ve seen in recent memory. The old guard of superstars that we’ve become all too familiar with in LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant, though more than still holding their own, saw their grip on the top of NBA basketball be loosened more than we’ve seen in over a decade of dominance. With the Bucks taking out the title 2 years ago, it’s been a gradual process, however, 2023 felt like the door might well have been kicked in. The hierarchy heading into this season looks quite a bit different from what it was a year ago and in this article, I’m going to give it my best shot at pinpointing the teams with the 8 best odds at capturing the 2024 NBA title.

8. Philadelphia 76ers

For what feels like the umpteenth time in Joel Embiid’s tenure in Philly, the 76ers were on the doorstep of finally making the conference finals. After a season where they seemed to have the Embiid Harden duo clicking to the tune of 54 wins and 3rd in the East, this was as good a chance as any for Philly to get over the line and potentially even make the finals and yet again, they failed in brutal fashion. On their home floor in game 6, the 6ers were unable to but the nail in the coffin on a reeling Celtics whose superstar had had a horrendous shooting performance through all but about the last 5 minutes of the game. In those last 5 minutes, Tatum caught fire and made Philly pay for letting Boston stick around and the rest was history as they blew the doors off the 6ers in game 7. With the offseason bringing about James Harden requesting yet another change of scenery and as things currently stand, despite his wishes, it looks like he will remain a 76er. This 76ers team has established a frustrating track record over the years, however, one cannot count them out as they undeniably still house one of the best players in the league and the reigning MVP. Even as he approaches 30 with him and his co-star’s reputation of coming up small in the postseason, Philly might be in a spot where it’s still in their best interests to run it back as Embiid and Harden on the floor together remained a highly productive duo and with the potential of Tyrese Maxey taking another leap, the 6ers might very well put themselves in position to be at the right place at the right time to make a deep run again.

7. Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns’ championship outlook took a complete pivot at the trade deadline last year. A season that was beginning to reveal that the window with the Suns as constructed for the past 2 seasons was beginning to close. The team that had secured a finals berth in 2021 and a franchise high 64 wins in 2022 was beginning to wane and the Suns acted quickly, sending a king's ransom of assets to Brooklyn to acquire Kevin Durant. Durant sustaining injuries prevented the new look Suns from ever gelling and they saw their playoff run ended by a buzzsaw in the eventual champion Denver Nuggets. In the offseason, the Suns went ten toes down in their quest to stack star talent, trading for Bradley Beal by offloading Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and a laundry list of picks. This added onto having already given up Mikael Bridges and Cam Johnson in the Kevin Durant deal, I’m not completely sold on this experiment panning out for Phoenix. Having gutted just about all of their depth to stack their top end talent certainly makes them something to behold as far as scoring is concerned, defense and issues of depth are certainly a different story. Some of these issues were already on display in their 2nd round loss where they notched 2 wins off Denver off the back of both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker going absolutely nuclear in a way that most felt couldn’t be sustainable and with the addition of Beal, these questions could be amplified with who they lean on as their go-to perimeter defender or who off the bench can consistently produce for them over the course of a playoff series. These coupled with Durant’s uncertain durability at this stage of his career, makes for plenty of cause to pause before buying into the Suns even though they have to be here on sheer talent alone.

6. Miami Heat

Off their 2nd finals run in 4 years and first in line in the Damian Lillard sweepstakes this summer, it feels strange placing the Miami Heat outside my top 5. With such strong infrastructure in play with Pat Riley and Erik Spolstera manning the ship, you always underestimate this team at your own peril. Heat culture is real and this season and playoff run was as great an example of that as any, as a team that underwhelmed all regular season and seemed like it was destined for a 1st round exit, squeaked through the play-in and proceeded to morph into a completely different team. One look at the respective personnel group and you’d think they had no business winning either their 1st round or conference finals matchups, but courtesy of the best coach in the league and a team-wide stretch of out of body 3-point shooting, the Heat navigated their way back to the Finals. In the Finals though, the 3-point shooting reverted back to the mean and Miami seemed simply overmatched. And therein lies the problem with evaluating this iteration of the Heat. They’ve obviously overcome them before, but in spite of Spolstera and Jimmy Butler’s greatness, it just seems like all too often, they can still just be out-talented. Butler and Bam Adebayo obviously have worked as a duo plus Heat culture and their player development have been notorious for taking in undrafted talent and squeezing every last drop out of them, however, like it’s felt in each of their last 2 finals appearances, it feels like there’s a ceiling to the Heat as presently constructed. Swinging a trade for Damian Lillard would do wonders in bridging that talent gap with some of the league’s best, however, given the Heat’s limited options as far as packages they can send Portland’s way, it remains to be seen how they can get that deal done and what that team will look like.

5. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors had very little time to enjoy the fruits of their 4th and perhaps sweetest title as the punch heard round the world with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole drove a wedge in the chemistry among the team’s veterans and young talent. Quite frankly, the season felt like it ended giving a better impression of their showing throughout 2022-23 given a horrendous road record all year and being on the brink of being sent out in the first round if not for some Stephen Curry magic. In spite of all this, I remain very high on the 2024 Warriors and their prospects and that really stems from the latter part of the prior sentence. At 35 years of age, I believe Steph Curry when he says he still feels like he’s in his prime and his heroics over the last 2 seasons bolster that claim. The Warriors themselves, feel a whole lot more intent on maximizing the remainder of their original core in Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green’s time together. For one, they’ve averted their original two timeline plan in developing young talent while attempting to contend with their current core. Most notably, the offseason saw the Warriors essentially exchange Jordan Poole out for Chris Paul, something that has the potential to pose as a double edged sword. On one hand, Paul will no doubt provide more consistent play and decision making than Poole, however, the concerns of availability are all too familiar for CP3, particularly at 38 years old. Additionally, the addition of Dario Saric provides for more front court flexibility, not leaning so heavily on Kevon Looney. Ultimately, the Warriors original core still proved to be as formidable unit as any when on the floor together last season and with a clean slate, I think the Warriors still have some juice in the tank and bounceback with a strong 2024.

4. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers 2023 season was as jarring and improbable a turnaround as I’ve seen in my time watching NBA basketball. After a 2-10 start, and reeling all the way through the trade deadline, Rob Pelinka finally found a way to dig the Lakers roster out of a hole that he had just as big a hand in putting together since their 2020 title. With Austin Reaves arguably blooming into their 3rd best player, flipping Russell Westbrook into D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley and then Kendrick Nunn into Rui Hachimura, ignited some youth and shooting into the Lakers roster and proved key in completely reversing their fortunes as the Lakers surged to the best record in the NBA post trade-deadline. Perhaps most telling, post deadline and through the playoffs this felt like as least reliant a LeBron James team has been on James having to be at his best; something of utmost importance with James heading to uncharted territory in year 21 (though still excellent). Alongside better fitting pieces that make them one of the most balanced and well rounded teams in the league, last year also saw the return of Anthony Davis to his dominant best which saw him step into the spotlight as the Lakers’ #1 option for stretches. In the offseason, the Lakers really needed to do nothing more than run it back. A full season with this team will almost surely net them a better start to the year and, therefore, a higher seed setting them up for one of LeBron James’ last legitimate pushes for another title.

3. Milwaukee Bucks

All seemed to be going to plan for the 2023 Milwaukee Bucks. They entered the playoffs as the number 1 seed in the Eastern conference and didn’t look like they’d be derailed by injury to their key contributors as they were a year prior, courtesy of a Khris Middleton knee injury. This vision hardly lasted a few minutes into their first round series with the Miami Heat as their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo sustained a back injury in the early going of game 1. Even in spite of Giannis’ absence, the Bucks absolutely had their chances in what might’ve been the closest, most exciting 4-1 gentleman’s sweeps I’ve ever seen, with Giannis returning for games 4 and 5. Having taken out the Bucks in the bubble in 2020, Miami again showcased much of the flaws in the Bucks’ offensive philosophy with much of the culpability falling at the feet of coach Mike Budenholzer. In response, Milwaukee fired their championship winning head coach and head into 2024 running back the core that saw them capture the 2021 title, returning Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez alongside Giannis and Jrue Holiday. While this cast might be showing the early signs of aging just a bit, with Giannis Antetkkounmpo still in the midst of his prime and firmly in contention for the title of best player in the world, it will be interesting to see what new and first time head coach Adrian Griffin can bring to the Bucks who remain primed for at least another dominant regular season and charge for a return to the finals.

2. Boston Celtics

With due respect to the current Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat, who downed the Celtics in 7 in the conference finals, I’m still going to slide the Celtics ahead as far as their outlook heading into the 2024 season. In the Tatum Brown era, Boston has established an unparalleled level of consistency, establishing a floor of conference finals for all but 1 season since Jayson Tatum entered the league. This offseason, the Celtics made a big splash, shaking up their core by trading away their defensive player of the year starting point guard in Marcus Smart, netting them all star big man Kristaps Porzingis in return. The trade was completely unexpected, however, if you ask me, Boston has emerged an improved team for it. As Al Horford ages, Porzingis gives the Celtics an added component of scoring diversity, being able to play at the 5 with Robert Williams without having to sacrifice spacing while still adding rim pressure. An upgrade in supporting cast alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown beginning to enter their primes makes for another promising opportunity to chase after ring #18 and given the sound structural support and metronomic consistency this organization has put forth in this iteration of the team, there’s no doubt they’ll be right in the mix of the 2024 title race.

1. Denver Nuggets

The 2023 NBA season was going to be the test of legitimacy for Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets heading into 2023. Jokic’s individual brilliance had earned him the league MVP each of the last 2 seasons to keep an injury ridden Nuggets squad in the playoff hunt, however, Denver was yet to get a true bite at the apple with their full complement of talent healthy since the bubble in 2020. The acquisition of Aaron Gordon midway through 2021 seemed like it could put them over the top as a contender in the Western conference, however, Jamal Murray’s ACL gave out just a week after the move and the rest was a wash. Unfairly or not, with Murray set to return, all eyes were back on Denver as to what they were made of and did they ever respond. The 1 seed in the West all season long and one of the most dominant playoff runs of recent memory soon followed and a year later, we now stand with Jokic, in many’s eyes the league’s best player, and his partner in crime Jamal Murray, seemingly back to the peak of his powers. Heading into 2024, this makes for a scary proposition with the league’s best duo smack in the middle of their primes and the majority of their championship winning core returning. Some key rotation pieces were lost in the offseason (notably Bruce Brown), however, there’s no figuring out the Jokic-Murray two man game and unlike some of the recent champions, their core is not an aging one with key contributors like Aaron Gordon, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, and Michael Porter Jr. all set to return for the foreseeable future. All signs point to no letdown from the defending champs.